It has been a generally bearish fortnight across power and gas Annuals. In spite of all the concern relating to the Australian LNG strike action, prices have fallen. Short-term has been more robust, but Annuals have shed value. More benign weather conditions across the UK and the continent has seen much lower energy demand. At the same time, gas storage has been confirmed as full, and French nuclear output has increased, both giving the market comfort in terms of generation, but also reducing associated carbon costs. As we head towards the energy winter season (October ’23 to March ’24) we are seeing front-month weakness, but more risk built into prices for November and December and Q1 ’24. If will be interesting to see how long the front-month dictating the season will last – a lot will depend on how soon wintry conditions are upon us and how this will drive sentiment in comparison to the very mild winter of 2022/2023.

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