Minimum volatility in a calm power market

Thursday 2nd March 2023

The decline in wholesale gas and power continues, with all power annuals now breaking £150/MWh, a remarkable reversal from the £600 seen last summer. A huge driver remains the abundance of gas, both in terms of retained storage and LNG deliveries. The higher the storage levels are now, the lighter summer injections will have to be, potentially pushing rates lower in the coming months. Winter is all but de-risked, with careful gas management and relatively warm conditions across Europe – recent cold snaps have not caused concerns.

The question now is whether this trend will continue, with prices still inflated on pre-Covid norms. There is some upward pressure from strong carbon costs and the possibility the post-lockdown manufacturing will draw LNG away from Europe. However, the general mood remains distinctly bearish.