Short-term falls to lowest non-Christmas level for 10 years

Monday 14th October 2019

The start of October saw the bearishness of late September continue, with further falls in Annuals as the expectation of French nuclear shutdowns receded. There was also good value in short-term gas and power markets with day-ahead power dropping to its lowest level since Christmas Eve 2015 (Christmas Day having the lowest daily demand). Short-term power benefitted from lots of wind generation from the back end of the hurricane weather patterns. This had a knock-on to short-term gas which was lower anyway due to continued mild weather.

 There was an upturn in prices late last week, as the possibility of a Brexit deal was suggested following the positive Anglo-Irish meeting on Thursday. This sent sterling higher which boosted a supressed EU carbon market – a deal would most likely mean the UK remaining in the trading scheme. There was also some bullish pressure when an explosion was reported on an Iranian oil tanker off the coast of Saudi Arabia. There was the suggestion this was a deliberate attack (in retaliation for the drone strike last month) and oil went higher. However, this morning oil is down again, as fears of an escalation diminish.